Today I headed to Caerphilly to document the town as it faced its by-election, a significant event here in Wales, not only for who might win, but for what the polling and outcome represents. Like my hometown of Merthyr, and so many other valleys towns, Caerphilly has long been a Labour stronghold. If you’d said a decade ago that Labour wouldn’t just struggle here, but might not even be in the running, you’d have been told you’d taken a knock to the head.

I didn’t take anywhere near as many photographs as usual, spending much of the day chatting with locals instead. The images I did capture lean heavily towards Reform — not by design, but because their presence in the town was so strong, and their supporters so willing to be photographed. On the former, sometimes you just don’t “sync” with certain candidates or campaigns, and that may have been the case today, but there was no mistaking the energy that surrounded Reform’s volunteers, especially with the buzz sparked by Nigel Farage’s arrival.

That imbalance in my shots surprised me. Realising the tilt, I went looking for Labour and Plaid supporters to balance things out but there were few to be found, and those I did meet were hesitant to appear on camera. It’s the reverse of what I’ve found at most rallies, where left-leaning crowds tend to be the more open. Today, though, Reform voters seemed to sense that it was their day, much more willing to be in the eye of the lens.

I spoke with nearly a dozen people from café owners praising the Plaid candidate’s connection to the community to former two-decade Labour members who had turned to Reform. Their reasons varied wildly, but one thread tied them all together: a feeling that Labour is no longer the party of working people. This by-election, for many, wasn’t about switching allegiance but about being left behind.

It’s going to be a long night in Caerphilly, and many eyes, both near and far will be on the result for what many feel is a possible glimpse into Wales’ future.